Trends You Can Trust: Foundations
Simple habits to help you spot misleading numbers and make smarter decisions.
Here at WeDigData, we believe you don’t need a statistics degree to be a sharp and savvy consumer of data. A little structure, a few good habits, and the right questions will take you far.
We’ve all seen headlines or claims like:
“Traffic jumped 7% this month!”
“Housing sales are up!”
“Client growth is up 50%!”
From headlines to team dashboards to sales pitches, trend data is everywhere. But while it’s easy to calculate, it’s also easy to misread or misuse. And that can lead to flawed thinking and flawed decisions.
The good news? Most trend mistakes are easy to spot (and fix) once you know what to look for. Let’s walk through three simple habits that’ll help you stop second-guessing and start asking smarter questions about trends.
Habit #1: Always, always label the time period
A trend is just a comparison between now and some point in the past:
Reminder: To calculate trend → (Now / Before) - 1 = trend percentage
Example: I read 48 books this year and 36 last year – a 33% increase!
(48 / 36) - 1 = 33% increase.
Easy, right? But here’s the trap – if someone says:
“Traffic was up 7% in June!”
That sounds good… but compared to what?
Compared to May?
Compared to June last year?
Compared to a running average for the past 6 months?
Time periods matter. An unlabeled trend will confuse a conversation even amongst experienced people if the comparison isn’t clear.
Don’t see a time period? Ask. That’s what savvy data users do.
Habit #2: Size matters. Pay attention to the baseline
Let’s say someone says: “Client numbers are up 50% this year!”
Great! Or is it?
If they went from 2 to 3 clients, that’s technically a 50% increase.
If they went from 200 to 300 clients, that’s a serious growth story.
Same percentage, completely different impact.
It cuts both ways:
If 4th grade enrollment is down 10% from 30 students to 27, that might be normal variation.
But if a $5K product revenue drops 10% from $30M to $27M that means you lost 600 clients. That’s not a shrug; that’s a strategy conversation.
So anytime someone throws out a seemingly impressive increase or decrease in trend:
Ask for the baseline number. It could make the difference between a casual acknowledgement or a major celebration (or crisis).
Habit #3: Adjust for seasonality
Some industries have strong seasonal patterns:
Retail spikes around the holidays
Local real estate sales may peak in May and June
Valentine’s Day will make or break a florist
In these cases, month-over-month trends are often meaningless.
Example: A flower shop does 40% of their annual sales in February. 40%!
So comparing February to January? Useless. That’s just Valentine’s Day.
But if their February sales this year were higher vs. last February? Now that’s a win.
Seasons that stretch
Another example: Let’s talk about holiday shopping. Between Black Friday and Amazon’s Prime Day in October, we start gift-hunting earlier every year!
So if you’re selling a great holiday gift item, you are not just looking at December sales anymore.
Zoom out and compare October to December this year vs. last year to capture the real holiday shopping window.
If your industry has seasonality, compare year-over-year. That’s how you see what’s truly changing.
And when the season stretches, your trend window needs to stretch too. Kind of like a good pair of pants on Thanksgiving.
Wrap It Up
As a savvy user and consumer of data, anytime you encounter a trend number, here your mini-checklist to see if it is worth your time:
Label the time period. And don’t trust unlabeled trends.
Ask for the baseline number. Put that percentage in context.
Check for seasonality. Then compare like with like periods.
You don’t have to be a data scientist to push back on sloppy analysis. These habits will help you feel more confident in meetings, spot misleading numbers early, and guide smarter decisions.
You’ve got this.
In Part 2 on Trends, we’ll dig into “trend stacking” and how to compare different time periods to get a fuller picture. Stay tuned!
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